About TheLayoffRadar

Methodology

TheLayoffRadar uses an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 2017-2025 data to predict mass layoffs (≥5% workforce reduction) 1-3 months before they're announced.

Features Used

Financial Metrics

  • • 6-month stock return
  • • YoY revenue growth
  • • EPS growth
  • • Free cash flow trend
  • • Debt/EBITDA ratio
  • • Operating margin changes

Leadership Signals

  • • CEO changes (last 6 months)
  • • CEO tenure < 2 years
  • • Executive turnover patterns

Social Signals

  • • Twitter rumor volume (60-day)
  • • Negative sentiment score
  • • Keyword tracking (layoff, cuts, etc.)

Other Indicators

  • • Earnings call sentiment
  • • Cost-cutting mentions
  • • Federal funds rate
  • • Sector risk scores

Data Sources

  • Polygon.io: Financial data, stock prices
  • SEC EDGAR: 8-K filings, CEO changes
  • Twitter/X API v2: Social sentiment, rumors
  • WARN notices: Ground truth layoff events
  • Seeking Alpha: Earnings call transcripts

Contact & Support

For business inquiries, custom analytics, API access, or technical support:

Disclaimer

TheLayoffRadar predictions are probabilistic and for informational purposes only. They should not be used as the sole basis for investment or employment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.