Accuracy & Backtesting

We measure our signals against ground truth: confirmed mass layoffs (100+ employees) from WARN filings and SEC 8-K disclosures. The figures below are computed live from that data — not hand-set — so this page always reflects the current, reproducible result.

What this does and doesn't mean

• Our signals catch a meaningful share of mass layoffs months in advance, but not all of them — a low reading is not a guarantee that a company is safe.
• Precision is intentionally traded for early warning: not every elevated signal is followed by a layoff. Treat ratings as probabilistic estimates, not predictions of certainty.
• Metrics are derived from public data and depend on the availability of forum, news, and filing coverage for a given company.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is financial or investment advice.